Niro Sivanathan

People have a tendency to stick to an existing course of action, no matter how irrational. In the management literature, this is known as an escalation of commitment, and in nearly every academic case study on the demise of a former industry leader, it played a major role. The story of the British music company HMV—whose managing director dismissed downloadable music as “just a fad”—is a classic example. Escalation of commitment is explained by a number of mutually reinforcing biases, among them: the sunk cost fallacy, loss aversion, the illusion of control, the preference for completion, pluralistic ignorance, and personal identification. The authors describe six practices that can help counteract these biases: (1) Set decision rules. (2) Pay attention to voting rules. (3) Protect dissenters. (4) Expressly consider alternatives. (5) Separate advocacy and decision making. (6) Reinforce the anticipation of regret. Overcommitted executives, they write, are prone to ignore signs of their company’s imminent collapse. These practices will encourage managers at all levels to make decisions more objectively.

When bad decisions force business leaders to leave their jobs, organizations often rush to replace them with insiders, who are familiar with the original problem and the former leader. In times of turmoil, the choice seems natural and even obvious: Because insiders know the past, they should be less likely to repeat it. General Motors pointedly replaced Rick Wagoner as its chief executive officer with his protégé Fritz Henderson, a career GM employee. However, our research reveals that despite the natural inclination to opt for an insider with connections to the old boss, a failing leader is often better replaced with a completely unrelated outside party.